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Think Tank Advisory Board

The Challenge

A company that manufactures and markets a recognized line of executive jets (private and business) wanted to establish reliable sales forecasts for their current and "drawing board" products over the next 25 years. The company needed to reach out to experts from different backgrounds in order to hear multiple perspectives. From these inputs, the company hoped to better qualify and quantify their long-term projections.

The Solution

The solution to the company's objectives became a Think Tank Advisory Board - a stellar panel of 12 respected experts in business aviation best qualified to predict the future of the industry. They included 3 respected global economists (U.S., Europe and Asia), 2 international private-jet marketing consultants, 2 business-jet leasing CEOs, 1 distinguished futurist, 1 finance expert in private/business versus commercial jet travel, 3 jet aircraft resellers (U.S., Europe, Asia/Middle East).

The Think Tank members gathered for a 2-day meeting. The meeting began with a presentation by the company. In consultation with the company, a series of 10 questions and multiple follow-up questions were created. The meeting included 3 breakout sessions intended to later compare and contrast conclusions of each group. The key questions were:

  1. What are the expected major changes in the global distribution of wealth and the effect on the private/business jet market over the next 25 years?
  2. How will global population dynamics influence the concentration of wealth?
  3. How will the market evolve over the next quarter century by country (particularly the United States, Russia, China, and oil-producing companies within the Middle East)?
  4. Which countries will emerge as "New Buyers"?
  5. What effect will global interest rates and oil prices have on sales of jet aircraft?
  6. What are the future expectations regarding time-sharing versus ownership?
  7. What is the expected growth trajectory for private/business aircraft (number of units by 8 year intervals)?
  8. What is the best, worst, and most probable case scenarios for the future of the private/business jet industry?
  9. What are some of the expected 'wants' in the market (i.e. smaller or larger planes, wider cabin space, longer-range jets, fuel economy, shorter take-off/landing capabilities)?

The Outcome

From the 2-day Think Tank and the written Report and Analysis of the meeting, the company's confidence in predicting the future of the market was vastly enhanced. This enabled the company to create forecasting models that became the basis for major investment decisions. The company continues to convene Think Tank Advisory Boards to gain insight to the changing landscape in private/business jet demand.